Brazil storm warning: 11 capitals on alert today

Brazil's national weather institute, INMET, has a yellow storm warning in effect on Monday (Oct. 26) for 2.818 municipalities in 16 states and the Federal District. The warning is rated "Potential Danger." It covers Goiás, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Paraná, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, São Paulo, Espírito Santo, Pará, Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão, Amazonas, Rio de Janeiro, Piauí, the Federal District, Roraima and Rondônia. It runs from midnight to 11:59 p.m. Brasília time and includes 11 capitals: Manaus, Brasília, Vitória, Goiânia, Cuiabá, Campo Grande, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Palmas.

For the area under the warning, INMET forecasts rain of 20 to 30 millimeters an hour, or up to 50 millimeters a day, winds of 40 to 60 km/h and hail. It rates the risk of power outages, crop damage, falling tree branches and flooding as low. In case of wind gusts, INMET advises people not to shelter under trees, because of the risk of falling limbs and lightning, and not to park vehicles near transmission towers or billboards. The institute also recommends avoiding electronic devices that are plugged into an outlet. More information is available from Brazil's civil defense agency, Defesa Civil (phone 199), and from the fire department, Corpo de Bombeiros (phone 193).

Low humidity in the Northeast

The day's second warning is a yellow alert for low humidity, in effect from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. for 355 municipalities in eight states: Ceará, Bahia, Piauí, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. No capital is in the area. According to INMET, relative humidity is expected to fall to between 30% and 20%, with a low risk of wildfires and of health problems. The institute recommends drinking plenty of fluids, avoiding physical exertion during the driest hours and staying out of the sun during the hottest part of the day.

Forecast for the capitals today

In the model run by the Norwegian weather service MET Norway, Vitória has the highest rainfall estimate among Brazil's 27 capitals (26 state capitals plus Brasília) for the 24 hours starting in the early morning today: 17.9 millimeters. Palmas is next with 8.5 millimeters, followed by Porto Velho with 7.7 millimeters. These are model estimates, not measurements. The window starts at 6 a.m. or 7 a.m. depending on the capital, and the ranking may change during the day. Vitória, which is inside the area under the warning, has an INMET forecast of showers and thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon and isolated showers and thunderstorms at night, with a high of 27 °C and a low of 22 °C.

In Rio de Janeiro, also inside the area under the warning, INMET forecasts mostly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms in the morning, cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and mostly cloudy skies in the evening, with a high of 22 °C and a low of 17 °C. The MET Norway model estimates 5.4 millimeters for the city over the same 24-hour window. In Belo Horizonte, the forecast is for a high of 26 °C and a low of 16 °C, with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon and a chance of isolated rain at night. In Brasília, the high is 29 °C and the low 20 °C, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and a chance of isolated rain at night.

São Paulo, also inside the area under the warning, is forecast to see isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and mostly clear skies at night, with a high of 18 °C and a low of 12 °C. Curitiba, also covered by the warning, has a high of 19 °C and a low of 8 °C, the lowest minimum forecast among the capitals, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of isolated rain in the morning and afternoon. Porto Alegre, outside the area under the warning, is forecast to have a high of 20 °C and a low of 10 °C, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning and afternoon.

At the other extreme, Teresina has the highest forecast maximum among the capitals, 39 °C, with a low of 25 °C and a minimum relative humidity forecast of 30%. Porto Velho, Macapá and Boa Vista follow, all three with a high of 37 °C. Their forecast lows are 24 °C, 23 °C and 27 °C, respectively.

Tuesday (Oct. 27)

For tomorrow, INMET forecasts a yellow storm warning from midnight to 11:59 p.m. for 652 municipalities in eight states and the Federal District: Goiás, Bahia, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Espírito Santo and the Federal District. Three capitals are in the area: Salvador, Brasília and Goiânia. In the city-by-city forecast, Brasília has a high of 31 °C and a low of 18 °C, with overcast skies and drizzle throughout the day. Goiânia has 33 °C and 19 °C, with overcast skies and drizzle at night. Salvador has 29 °C and 25 °C, with overcast skies and drizzle at night.

Among the capitals in the Southeast and South, Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba are forecast to have overcast days, with 25 °C and 17 °C in Rio and 18 °C and 7 °C in Curitiba. São Paulo, with 19 °C and 10 °C, starts cloudy and turns overcast in the afternoon.

The city-by-city forecast describes the weather in general terms. Where it differs from a warning, follow the warning, which is the official reference for the risk of heavy rain, wind and hail. The temperatures and rainfall totals cited are forecasts. The warnings and forecasts were checked at 7 a.m. on Oct. 26 (Brasília time), and the areas covered by the warnings may change during the day.

Sources

• INMET: weather warnings panel
• INMET: city-by-city weather forecast
• MET Norway: forecast data (CC BY 4.0 license)
• RaisLife: weather and forecast for the 27 capitals

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review. Data: RaisLife weather panel.