Orange rain alert for Bahia and Minas Gerais, Brazil

Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) has an orange alert for heavy accumulated rainfall in effect on Tuesday (Oct. 20) for 38 municipalities in the states of Bahia and Minas Gerais. The alert is rated "Danger," and it runs from 12:01 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. today, Brasília time. According to the institute, the area can expect rain of 30 to 60 millimeters per hour, or 50 to 100 millimeters per day. That raises the risk of flooding, landslides on hillsides and overflowing rivers in cities with high-risk areas. No state capital is on the list of municipalities covered by this alert.

What INMET advises

For this type of alert, the institute recommends avoiding going out in the bad weather and watching for changes on hillsides. If possible, it also advises switching off electrical appliances and the main power panel. In case of flooding or a similar situation, people should protect their belongings from the water by wrapping them in plastic bags. More information is available from Civil Defense (phone 199) and the fire department (phone 193).

Heavy rain in 14 states

A second alert, yellow and less severe, is in effect for heavy rain. INMET rates it "Potential Danger." It covers 1.144 municipalities in 14 of Brazil's federative units: Acre, Amazonas, Bahia, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Pará, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins. It stays in force until 11:59 p.m. today. According to the list of municipalities, five state capitals fall inside the area: Rio Branco, Manaus, Salvador, Porto Velho and Palmas.

The institute forecasts rain of 20 to 30 millimeters per hour, or up to 50 millimeters per day, along with strong winds of 40 to 60 km/h. INMET rates the risk of power outages, fallen tree branches, flooding and lightning strikes as low. If winds gust, the advice is not to shelter under trees and not to park vehicles near transmission towers or billboards.

Today's forecast for state capitals

INMET's forecast calls for rain or a chance of rain in all five capitals inside the heavy-rain alert. Showers are expected in Porto Velho, Rio Branco, Palmas and Salvador, while rain in Manaus is only possible and isolated. Porto Velho is forecast to reach a high of 33 °C with a low of 24 °C, and Rio Branco a high of 33 °C and a low of 23 °C. Both will see plenty of clouds and showers, with thunderstorms at times. Palmas is forecast at 35 °C and 25 °C, with showers and thunderstorms at times, and Salvador at 29 °C and 25 °C, also with showers and thunderstorms at times. Manaus should reach 36 °C with a low of 25 °C, under heavy cloud cover with a chance of isolated rain.

The model from the Norwegian weather service (MET Norway) puts the largest rainfall totals over the next 24 hours among the capitals at Palmas (9.2 millimeters) and Porto Velho (7.0 millimeters), followed by Natal (3.4 millimeters). These are model estimates, not measurements. The model shows little rain for Salvador and Rio Branco, but INMET's forecast and alerts for both capitals point to showers. When the two disagree, go with the alert.

Teresina has the hottest day, with a forecast high of 39 °C and a low of 26 °C. Boa Vista follows at 37 °C, then Manaus and Cuiabá at 36 °C each. In the South, the day is cool: Curitiba, Florianópolis and Porto Alegre have a forecast high of 20 °C, and the low of 10 °C appears in Curitiba and Porto Alegre. São Paulo is forecast at 22 °C and 13 °C, with heavy cloud and morning fog. Rio de Janeiro is forecast at 27 °C and 19 °C, also with morning fog. Brasília is forecast at 32 °C and 18 °C, with few clouds in the morning and a chance of isolated rain from the afternoon.

Wednesday (Oct. 21) and the days ahead

The alerts continue over the following days. For Wednesday, INMET forecasts heavy rain (yellow alert) in Acre, Rondônia, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Roraima and Pará, with Rio Branco, Manaus and Porto Velho on the list. There is also a yellow accumulated-rainfall alert ("Potential Danger") for Bahia, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. From 3 p.m., a storm alert, with a chance of hail, covers Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.

On Thursday (Oct. 22), the storm alert covers 2.745 municipalities in 14 federative units, including Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. Nine capitals are on the list: Rio Branco, Manaus, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Porto Velho, Florianópolis and São Paulo. On Friday (Oct. 23), there is a storm alert for Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and a heavy-rain alert for Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia.

In its city-by-city forecast for Wednesday, INMET shows overcast skies with drizzle in Manaus (35 °C and 26 °C), Rio Branco (33 °C and 23 °C) and Porto Velho (34 °C and 25 °C). São Paulo is listed at 23 °C and 15 °C, with overcast skies. Teresina stays at a high of 39 °C, and Brasília is forecast at 32 °C and 19 °C, with clear skies in the morning and evening and clouds in the afternoon.

The city forecast describes the weather in general terms. When it differs from an alert, follow the alert, which is the official reference for the risk of heavy rain and wind. The temperatures cited are INMET forecasts, not measurements. The alerts and forecasts were checked on the morning of Oct. 20 (Brasília time), and the areas covered by alerts may change during the day. The updated list is on the institute's official alerts page.

Sources

• INMET: weather alerts panel
• INMET: city-by-city weather forecast
• MET Norway: forecast data (CC BY 4.0 license)
• RaisLife: weather and forecast for the 27 capitals

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review. Data: RaisLife weather panel.