Brazil runoff poll average (Oct. 21): Flávio 51.4%, Lula 48.6%

A new runoff poll from Meio/Ideia (registration BR-08251/2026), released Oct. 21, puts Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.1% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 48.9% of valid votes (which exclude blank and null ballots). Among all respondents, the figures are 48% for Flávio and 46% for Lula. The survey interviewed 1.500 people and has a margin of error of ±2.5 points.

The average of the 29 runoff polls released through Oct. 21, which add up to 84.090 respondents, shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.4% of valid votes and Lula at 48.6%. The average is a calculation by RaisLife, not a registered poll. The gap is 2.7 percentage points, which falls within twice the polls' average margin of error (±1.7 points). In the average through Oct. 20, Flávio was also at 51.4%, unchanged to the first decimal place. The average includes polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and released after the first round on Oct. 4, weighted by the number of respondents.

Presidential poll today: what was released

• Meio/Ideia (registration BR-08251/2026): Flávio 51.1% and Lula 48.9% of valid votes (among all respondents: Flávio 48% and Lula 46%), 1.500 respondents, margin of error ±2.5 points, fieldwork Oct. 15 to 19 (a statistical tie by RaisLife's criterion). Sources: Metrópoles, Estado de Minas, Revista Fórum.

Brazil's 2026 presidential polls: what the surveys show

Twenty-five polls show Flávio numerically ahead (17 of them a statistical tie), and three show Lula ahead (all three a statistical tie). The runoff is four days away. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, so RaisLife's polls page lists all of them, by date and by pollster, instead of picking one. The full numbers, with the history, are on the presidential polls page.

Which pollsters are in the average

Today's average combines polls from Alfa Inteligência, AtlasIntel, CNT/MDA, Data Ranking, DataTrends, Datafolha, Futura/100% Cidades, Gerp, Indexa/Broadcast, Instituto França, Ipespe/Abrapel, Meio/Ideia, Nexus/BTG, PoderData/Aya, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, Veritá and Vox Brasil, all registered with the TSE. All were released after the first round and each was reported by two different news outlets. Every pollster uses its own method and sample, which is why the numbers differ; the presidential polls page shows each pollster's series. AtlasIntel's fieldwork ran from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8, partly before the first round (Oct. 4). It is included because it was released afterward, and its respondents make up 6% of the sample in the average; without it, the average would be Flávio 51.3% and Lula 48.7%. Vox Brasil and Quaest published their figures as a share of all respondents, not valid votes. The conversion to valid votes is not the pollsters' own: the news site Poder360 made it for Vox Brasil, and RaisLife made it for Quaest. To follow the count and results on voting day, see the 2026 elections page.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign: what analysts say it could do to win

According to Mariana Chaise, a political science professor at the University of Campinas (Unicamp) and a researcher at Unicamp's Center for Public Opinion Studies (Cesop), speaking to the outlet Nexo, the strategy that worked best for Flávio Bolsonaro in the Band TV debate was setting the agenda by steering the discussion toward public safety, ground she sees as favorable to the right. For the Globo debate, she believes the strategy should be kept. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 19)

According to Pedro Venceslau, a political analyst at CNN Brasil, with a polarized electorate and little room to win over the opponent's voters, the path for Flávio's campaign is to expand its own vote and try to push Lula's voters toward a blank or null ballot, or toward abstention. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 20)

Political scientist Antônio Lavareda, of the pollster Ipespe, told Metrópoles that Flávio's lead became more vulnerable after the rival campaign's response on social media and in the streets. Flávio keeps the lead he had in the first round and an electorate more willing to turn out to vote, Lavareda said. (Metrópoles, Oct. 19)

Lula's campaign: what analysts say it could do to win

According to Mariana Chaise, the political science professor at Unicamp and Cesop researcher, speaking to Nexo, Lula's campaign needs to prepare for the topics its opponent will raise in the Globo debate, show more discipline and move the discussion to public policy, ground on which the president tried to speak to undecided voters. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 19)

According to Pedro Venceslau of CNN Brasil, with a polarized electorate and little room to win over the opponent's voters, Lula's path is to close in on Flávio and try to turn the result around, also by pushing the senator's voters toward a blank or null ballot, or toward abstention. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 20)

Lavareda, of Ipespe, told Metrópoles that Lula needs to fight abstention and sustain the response he mounted on social media and in the streets. He compares the 2.4-point gap between the candidates in the Ipespe/Abrapel poll with the 0.6-point gap in the Nexus poll released Oct. 19. (Metrópoles, Oct. 19)

What comes next

The runoff is on Sunday, Oct. 25, four days away. Exit polls can only be released after voting ends. Anyone who wants to adjust the first-round numbers and build scenarios for the governor races still in dispute can use the governor runoff simulator. The official result is the one announced by the TSE.

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review.

A poll shows voting intention during the period in which it was conducted and has a margin of error. The average and the statistical-tie criterion are calculations by RaisLife. Information checked against the sources cited. Updated Oct. 21.