Brazil runoff poll average (Oct. 17): Flávio 51.9%, Lula 48.1%

No new runoff poll entered RaisLife's database on Oct. 17. The average below repeats the Oct. 16 figures; only the countdown has changed, with eight days left until the vote.

Across the 15 runoff polls released through Oct. 17, which together surveyed 37.636 people, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.9% of valid votes (blank and spoiled ballots excluded) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 48.1%. RaisLife calculated the average itself; it is not a registered poll. The gap is 3.7 percentage points, which is less than twice the polls' average margin of error (±1.9 points). The average includes polls registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and released after the first round on Oct. 4, weighted by the number of respondents.

Brazil's 2026 presidential election polls: what they show

Thirteen polls put Flávio numerically ahead (eight of them in a statistical tie) and one puts Lula ahead (in a statistical tie). The runoff is eight days away. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, so RaisLife's page collects all of them, by date and by pollster, instead of picking one. The full numbers, with the history, are on the presidential polls page.

Which pollsters are in the average

Today's average combines TSE-registered polls from AtlasIntel, CNT/MDA, DataTrends, Datafolha, Futura/100% Cidades, Gerp, Ipespe/Abrapel, Nexus/BTG, PoderData/Aya, Quaest and Vox Brasil. All were released after the first round and each was reported by at least two different news outlets. Every pollster uses its own method and sample, which is why the numbers differ; the presidential polls page shows each one's series. AtlasIntel did its fieldwork from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8, partly before the first round (Oct. 4). It is included because it was released afterward, and it carries the most weight in the average (13% of respondents); without it, the average would be Flávio 51.7% and Lula 48.3%. For Vox Brasil and Quaest, the pollster published the numbers as a share of all respondents, and the conversion to valid votes was calculated by a third party: by Poder360 for Vox Brasil, by RaisLife for Quaest. To follow the count and the results on election day, see Brazil's 2026 elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign: what it could do to win

Political scientist Deysi Cioccari, speaking on Band's Canal Livre talk show, said Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign restructured itself after a rough start in formal endorsements. In her view, the moment calls for reaching deeper into communities and winning new voters, and the candidate, who could not find a running mate in the first round, is now being courted by allies. (Band, Oct. 10)

Teo Cury, a politics analyst at CNN Brasil, said Flávio Bolsonaro has taken a more passive stance since the first round, which has irritated allies who wanted him to be more active in the days that followed. According to the network's analysis, the debates could be decisive for both sides. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 16)

Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), told the news site Nexo that the biggest challenge for Flávio's campaign will be the candidate's lack of experience in government, along with ties to militias and scandals. That means protecting his image in a final stretch that, she said, will be very negative. The senator denies any wrongdoing. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Lula's campaign: what it could do to win

Political scientist Cila Schulman, also on Band's Canal Livre, said Lula's campaign had built up expectations of a bigger lead at the start of the runoff. When the result came in smaller, she said, the base mobilization the campaign is trying to carry out appears to have eased. (Band, Oct. 10)

Bruno Bolognesi, a political science professor at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), told Nexo that Lula's campaign leadership will necessarily have to run an attack campaign against Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio to try to win over the opponent's voters, since, in his assessment, Lula has little room left to grow. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Isabel Mega, a politics analyst at CNN Brasil, said the campaign of Lula's Workers' Party (PT) is betting on head-to-head confrontation with his opponent on TV, a format in which she sees Lula as more experienced. The analysis adds that both sides are targeting undecided voters and those who stayed home in the first round. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 16)

What comes next

The runoff is on Sunday, Oct. 25, eight days away. Exit polls may be published only after voting ends. Readers who want to rework the first-round numbers and build scenarios for the governor races still in play can use the governor runoff simulator. The official result is the TSE's.

A poll shows voter preferences at the time it was conducted and has a margin of error. The average and the statistical-tie standard are RaisLife calculations. Information checked against the sources cited. Updated on Oct. 17.

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review.