Brazil runoff poll average: Flávio 52.2%, Lula 47.8%

Across 11 polls of Brazil's presidential runoff released through Oct. 14, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, averages 52.2% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47.8%, according to a calculation by RaisLife. The polls cover 27,702 respondents in total. The average is RaisLife's own figure, not a registered poll. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots.

The gap is 4.4 percentage points, more than double the polls' average margin of error (±1.8 points). In the average through Oct. 13, Flávio had 52.3%, down 0.1 percentage point. The average includes polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and released after the first round on Oct. 4, weighted by the number of respondents.

Latest poll: Quaest

A new poll from Quaest, released Oct. 14, is registered as BR-08729/2026. Fieldwork ran Oct. 10 to 13, with 2,154 respondents and a margin of error of ±2.0 points. Flávio had 46% and Lula 44% of all respondents, the figures the institute published. In valid votes, RaisLife's calculation puts Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9%. By RaisLife's criterion, that is a statistical tie. Sources: Metrópoles and Estado de Minas.

What the polls show

Ten polls have Flávio numerically ahead, five of them within the statistical tie. One has Lula ahead, also within the tie. The runoff is 11 days away. Results differ across pollsters because of method, sample and fieldwork dates, so RaisLife lists all of them, by date and by institute, instead of picking one. The full numbers and history are on the presidential polls page.

Which pollsters are in the average

Today's average draws on polls registered with the TSE from AtlasIntel, DataTrends, Datafolha, Futura/100% Cidades, Gerp, Ipespe/Abrapel, Nexus/BTG, PoderData/Aya, Quaest and Vox Brasil. All were released after the first round and each was reported by two different news outlets. The presidential polls page shows each one's series.

AtlasIntel's fieldwork ran from Oct. 3 to 8, partly before the first round on Oct. 4. It is included because it was released afterward, and it carries the most weight in the average, at 18% of respondents. Without it, the average would be Flávio 52.1% and Lula 47.9%.

Vox Brasil and Quaest published their numbers as a share of all respondents, and the conversion to valid votes was made by others: the news site Poder360 for Vox Brasil, RaisLife for Quaest. For results and vote counting on election day, see Brazil's 2026 elections.

What Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign can do to win

Monalisa Soares, a political science professor at the Federal University of Ceará (UFC), told the news outlet Nexo that a sense of early victory can demobilize voters who think the contest is settled. It can also hurt efforts to win over people who backed other candidates in the first round, because it suggests no effort is needed to court them. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 8)

Political scientist Deysi Cioccari said on Band's program Canal Livre that Flávio's campaign had no formal endorsements in the first round, and allies are now vying to back it. In her view, the moment calls for reaching new voters at the grassroots while consolidating the votes already won. (Band, Oct. 10)

Lucas de Aragão, a partner at the consultancy Arko Advice, said in an analysis on CNN Brasil that Flávio's strategy is to sit tight and respond to criticism strategically, while seeking more votes in the Northeast, where Lula's advantage was smaller in this cycle. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 9)

What Lula's campaign can do to win

Political scientist Cila Schulman said on Canal Livre that Lula's campaign had raised expectations of a bigger first-round result. When the result came in smaller, the base relaxed its mobilization, and the campaign is now trying to revive it for the runoff. (Band, Oct. 10)

Lula's campaign will have to go on the attack against Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio if it hopes to win over their voters, Bruno Bolognesi, a political science professor at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), told Nexo. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Aragão, of Arko Advice, also said on CNN Brasil that voters who stayed home are a challenge for Lula. In 2022, abstention rose in the states where Lula won and fell in those won by Jair Bolsonaro. The analyst called the outlook difficult but "not impossible." (CNN Brasil, Oct. 9)

What comes next

The runoff is on Sunday, Oct. 25, 11 days away. Exit polls may be published only after voting ends. Readers who want to rework the first-round numbers and build scenarios for the governor races still in play can use the governor runoff simulator. The official result is the TSE's.

A poll shows voting intention at the time it was taken and carries a margin of error. The average and the statistical-tie criterion are RaisLife calculations. Information checked against the sources cited. Updated Oct. 14.

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review.