Brazil runoff poll average: Flávio 52.2%, Lula 47.8%

No new runoff poll was added to RaisLife's database on Oct. 15, so the average below is the same as Oct. 14's. Only the countdown changes: Brazil votes in 10 days.

Across the 11 runoff polls released through Oct. 15, covering 27.702 respondents, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 52.2% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 47.8%. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots. The figure is an average calculated by RaisLife, not a registered poll. The gap is 4.4 percentage points, more than double the polls' average margin of error (±1.8 points). The average includes polls registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and released after the first round on Oct. 4, weighted by number of respondents.

Brazil's 2026 presidential polls: what the numbers show

Ten polls put Flávio numerically ahead (5 of them in a technical tie), and one puts Lula ahead (in a technical tie). The runoff is 10 days away. The pollsters differ in method, sample and fieldwork dates, so RaisLife lists every poll by date and by pollster instead of picking one. The full numbers and history are on the presidential polls page.

Which pollsters are in the average

Today's average draws on polls registered with the TSE from AtlasIntel, DataTrends, Datafolha, Futura/100% Cidades, Gerp, Ipespe/Abrapel, Nexus/BTG, PoderData/Aya, Quaest and Vox Brasil. All were released after the first round and are backed by sources from at least two different news outlets. Each pollster uses its own method and sample, which is why the numbers differ; the presidential polls page shows each one's series. AtlasIntel's fieldwork ran from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8, partly before the first round on Oct. 4. It is included because it was released afterward, and it carries the most weight in the average (18% of respondents). Without it, the average would be Flávio 52.1% and Lula 47.9%. For Vox Brasil and Quaest, each pollster published its results as a share of all respondents, so the conversion to valid votes was done by another party: Poder360 for Vox Brasil, RaisLife for Quaest. For vote counting and results on election day, see Brazil's 2026 elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign: what it could do to win

Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), told the news site Nexo that public safety is likely to feature in the runoff, an issue on which the right makes a more persuasive case to voters. She said Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign may present it as something his government would be better able to fix. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

In an analysis for CNN Brasil, Lucas de Aragão, a partner at the consultancy Arko Advice, said Flávio's campaign has chosen a low profile, with measured replies to criticism. Part of the campaign team, he said, worries about the candidate's earlier remarks, which at times suggested he had already won. (CNN Brasil, Oct. 9)

Bruno Bolognesi, a political science professor at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), told Nexo the outlook is promising for Flávio, but new revelations about the candidate could cost him votes. If Lula's Workers' Party (PT) manages to land a scandal, he said, the senator should lose some ground; if not, things stay more or less as they are. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Lula's campaign: what it could do to win

Bolognesi told Nexo that Lula's campaign will necessarily have to go on the attack against Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio to win over the opponent's voters, since in his assessment the president has little room to grow. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Pavão told Nexo that government measures late in the first-round campaign, including the ban on online betting sites and the increase in Bolsa Família (Brazil's cash-transfer program), did not have the intended effect. Lula's campaign, she said, will need to find other strengths for the runoff. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

According to Aragão's CNN Brasil analysis, Lula lost votes in every state in Brazil's Northeast, and abstention is a risk: in 2022, turnout fell in states Bolsonaro won and rose in states Lula won. He called the outlook "extremely challenging" but "not impossible." (CNN Brasil, Oct. 9)

What comes next

The runoff is on Sunday, Oct. 25, 10 days from now. Exit polls may be released only after voting ends. Readers who want to rework the first-round numbers and build scenarios for the governor races still in contention can use the governor runoff simulator. The official result is the TSE's.

A poll shows voting intentions at the time it was taken and has a margin of error. The average and the technical-tie standard are RaisLife calculations. Information checked against the sources cited. Updated Oct. 15.

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review.