Brazil runoff poll average Oct. 16: Flávio 51.9%, Lula 48.1%

A new PoderData/Aya runoff poll released on Oct. 16 shows Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tied at 50.0% each of valid votes. Among all respondents, each has 47%. The poll, registered as BR-04258/2026, surveyed 3.000 people and has a margin of error of ±1.8 points.

Across the 13 runoff polls released through Oct. 16, covering 33.222 respondents, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.9% of valid votes and Lula at 48.1%. Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots. The figure is an average calculated by RaisLife, not a registered poll. The gap is 3.9 percentage points, more than double the polls' average margin of error (±1.9 points). In the average through Oct. 15, Flávio had 52.1%, a change of −0.2 percentage point. The average includes polls registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and released after the first round on Oct. 4, weighted by number of respondents.

New presidential poll out today

• PoderData/Aya (registration BR-04258/2026): Flávio 50.0% and Lula 50.0% of valid votes (among all respondents: Flávio 47% and Lula 47%), 3.000 respondents, margin of error ±1.8 points, fieldwork Oct. 13 to 15 (a statistical tie by RaisLife's standard). Sources: Gazeta do Povo, CNN Brasil, Exame.

Brazil's 2026 presidential polls: what the numbers show

Eleven polls put Flávio numerically ahead (6 of them in a statistical tie), and one puts Lula ahead (in a statistical tie). The runoff is 9 days away. The pollsters differ in method, sample and fieldwork dates, so RaisLife lists every poll by date and by pollster instead of picking one. The full numbers and history are on the presidential polls page.

Which pollsters are in the average

Today's average draws on polls registered with the TSE from AtlasIntel, DataTrends, Datafolha, Futura/100% Cidades, Gerp, Ipespe/Abrapel, Nexus/BTG, PoderData/Aya, Quaest and Vox Brasil. All were released after the first round, and each was reported by two different news outlets. Each pollster uses its own method and sample, which is why the numbers differ; the presidential polls page shows each one's series. AtlasIntel's fieldwork ran Oct. 3-8, partly before the first round on Oct. 4. It is included because it was released afterward, and it carries the most weight in the average (15% of respondents). Without it, the average would be Flávio 51.8% and Lula 48.2%. For Vox Brasil and Quaest, each pollster published its results as a share of all respondents, so the conversion to valid votes was done by third parties: the news site Poder360 for Vox Brasil and RaisLife itself for Quaest. For vote counting and results on election day, see Brazil's 2026 elections.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign: what it could do to win

Political scientist Deysi Cioccari said on Canal Livre, a talk show on the Band TV network, that Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign has regrouped after a weak start in lining up formal endorsements. In her view, the campaign is now focused on building grassroots reach and winning over new voters. The candidate, who struggled to find a running mate ahead of the first round, is now being courted by allies, she said. (Band, Oct. 10)

Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), told the news site Nexo that public safety is likely to feature in the runoff, an issue on which the right makes a more persuasive case to voters. She said Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign may present it as something his government would be better able to fix. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Pavão also told Nexo that the campaign's biggest challenge will be the candidate's lack of experience in government and what she described as his links to militias and to scandals. That means shielding his image in a final stretch she expects to be very negative. The senator denies any wrongdoing. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Lula's campaign: what it could do to win

Political scientist Cila Schulman said on Band's Canal Livre that Lula's campaign had raised expectations of a wider lead at the start of the runoff. When the margin came in smaller, she said, the supporters the campaign is trying to mobilize appear to have eased off. (Band, Oct. 10)

Bruno Bolognesi, a political science professor at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), told Nexo that Lula's campaign will have no choice but to go on the attack against Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio to win over the opponent's voters, since in his assessment Lula, of the Workers' Party (PT), has little room to grow. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

Pavão told Nexo that government measures late in the first-round campaign, including the ban on online betting sites and an increase in Bolsa Família payments (Brazil's cash-transfer program), did not have the intended effect. Lula's campaign, she said, will need to find other cards to play in the runoff. (Nexo Jornal, Oct. 5)

What comes next

The runoff is on Sunday, Oct. 25, 9 days from now. Exit polls may be released only after voting ends. Readers who want to rework the first-round numbers and build scenarios for the governor's races headed to a runoff can use the governor runoff simulator. Only the TSE's count is official.

A poll shows voting intentions at the time it was taken and has a margin of error. The average and the statistical-tie standard are RaisLife calculations. Information checked against the sources cited. Updated Oct. 16.

Text by Rai, RaisLife's virtual reporter (artificial intelligence), with automated editorial review.