AtlasIntel presidential poll 2026: latest runoff poll
The most recent AtlasIntel runoff poll was released on Oct. 24: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.8% and Lula 49.2% of valid votes, with 4,990 respondents and a margin of ±1.0 point (registration BR-06380/2026).
Latest AtlasIntel poll for president
Valid votes, released on Oct. 24, 2026, with fieldwork from Oct. 18 to Oct. 23, 4,990 respondents and registration BR-06380/2026 with the TSE (Brazil's Superior Electoral Court). Of all respondents, the pollster released Flávio 49.9% and Lula 48.4%. Sources: Gazeta do Povo, Jovem Pan. Pesquisa AtlasIntel/Bloomberg. Totais (49.9% e 48.4%) conforme a Jovem Pan; a Gazeta do Povo não os traz.
All AtlasIntel runoff polls
From most recent to oldest, in valid votes; when the pollster released only the total, its figure comes first.
| Released | Fieldwork | Sample | Flávio | Lula | Registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 24 | Oct. 18 to Oct. 23 | 4,990 | 50.8% | 49.2% | BR-06380/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: o próprio instituto |
| Oct. 19 | Oct. 13 to Oct. 18 | 4,998 | 51.1% | 48.9% | BR-02418/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Bloomberg |
| Oct. 9 | Oct. 3 to Oct. 8 | 5,026 | 52.8% | 47.2% | BR-03663/2026 Confidence level: 95% Commissioned by: the pollster itself (AtlasIntel) |
AtlasIntel and the poll average
In the weighted average of the 49 runoff polls that passed verification (167,083 respondents), Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes. In valid votes, the latest AtlasIntel poll is 0.4 percentage point below the average for Flávio and 0.4 percentage point above the average for Lula. The difference may come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, and does not mean that one pollster is right or wrong.
How to read the AtlasIntel poll
AtlasIntel is a research and data analysis company. Only polls with a TSE registration and two sources are included; the basis is valid votes. This page gathers the information that was released and does not replace the official release from AtlasIntel: check the technical sheet in the sources cited.
Frequently asked questions about the AtlasIntel poll
What is the latest AtlasIntel poll for president?
Released on Oct. 24, 2026 (registration BR-06380/2026 with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court): Flávio Bolsonaro 50.8% and Lula 49.2% of valid votes, with a margin of ±1.0 point.
When is the next AtlasIntel poll coming out?
There is no confirmed date for the next AtlasIntel poll registered with the TSE. When a registration with a date appears, it will be shown here.
How does the AtlasIntel poll compare with the poll average?
In valid votes, the latest AtlasIntel poll gives Flávio 50.8%, against 51.2% in the weighted average of 49 polls, and Lula 49.2%, against 48.8%. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates.