Real Time Big Data presidential poll 2026: latest runoff poll
The most recent Real Time Big Data runoff poll was released on Oct. 23: Flávio Bolsonaro 52.0% and Lula 48.0% of valid votes, with 2,000 respondents and a margin of ±2.0 points (registration BR-09670/2026).
Latest Real Time Big Data poll for president
Valid votes, released on Oct. 23, 2026, with fieldwork from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, 2,000 respondents and registration BR-09670/2026 with the TSE (Brazil's Superior Electoral Court). Of all respondents, the pollster released Flávio 49% and Lula 45%. Sources: Gazeta do Povo, Tribuna NF. Uma legenda de foto da Gazeta do Povo cita 2,520 entrevistados; o texto da metodologia, nas duas fontes, diz 2,000.
All Real Time Big Data runoff polls
From most recent to oldest, in valid votes; when the pollster released only the total, its figure comes first.
| Released | Fieldwork | Sample | Flávio | Lula | Registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 23 | Oct. 19 to Oct. 22 | 2,000 | 52.0% | 48.0% | BR-09670/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: o próprio instituto |
| Oct. 20 | Oct. 15 to Oct. 19 | 2,000 | 52.0% | 48.0% | BR-02952/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Real Time Big Data |
Real Time Big Data and the poll average
In the weighted average of the 49 runoff polls that passed verification (167,083 respondents), Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes. In valid votes, the latest Real Time Big Data poll is 0.8 percentage point above the average for Flávio and 0.8 percentage point below the average for Lula. The difference may come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, and does not mean that one pollster is right or wrong.
How to read the Real Time Big Data poll
Só entram pesquisas com registro no TSE e duas fontes; a base são os votos válidos. Esta página reúne as informações divulgadas e não substitui a divulgação oficial da Real Time Big Data: confira a ficha técnica nas fontes citadas.
Frequently asked questions about the Real Time Big Data poll
What is the latest Real Time Big Data poll for president?
Released on Oct. 23, 2026 (registration BR-09670/2026 with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court): Flávio Bolsonaro 52.0% and Lula 48.0% of valid votes, with a margin of ±2.0 points.
When is the next Real Time Big Data poll coming out?
There is no confirmed date for the next Real Time Big Data poll registered with the TSE. When a registration with a date appears, it will be shown here.
How does the Real Time Big Data poll compare with the poll average?
In valid votes, the latest Real Time Big Data poll gives Flávio 52.0%, against 51.2% in the weighted average of 49 polls, and Lula 48.0%, against 48.8%. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates.