Quaest presidential poll 2026: latest runoff poll
The most recent Quaest runoff poll was released on Oct. 24: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0% and Lula 49.0% of valid votes, with 3,702 respondents and a margin of ±2.0 points (registration BR-09158/2026).
Latest Quaest poll for president
Valid votes, released on Oct. 24, 2026, with fieldwork from Oct. 23 to Oct. 24, 3,702 respondents and registration BR-09158/2026 with the TSE (Brazil's Superior Electoral Court). Of all respondents, the pollster released Flávio 46% and Lula 45%. Sources: Metrópoles, TVT News. Divulgada na noite de Oct. 24, após o debate da Globo.
All Quaest runoff polls
From most recent to oldest, in valid votes; when the pollster released only the total, its figure comes first.
| Released | Fieldwork | Sample | Flávio | Lula | Registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 24 | Oct. 23 to Oct. 24 | 3,702 | 51.0% | 49.0% | BR-09158/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Globo Comunicação e Participações e O Globo |
| Oct. 21 | Oct. 17 to Oct. 20 | 2,154 | 45% (total) 50.6% valid, a RaisLife calculation | 44% (total) 49.4% valid, a RaisLife calculation | BR-08535/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Grupo Globo |
| Oct. 14 | Oct. 10 to Oct. 13 | 2,154 | 46% (total) 51.1% valid, a RaisLife calculation | 44% (total) 48.9% valid, a RaisLife calculation | BR-08729/2026 Confidence level: 95% Commissioned by: Editora Globo and Rede Globo |
Quaest and the poll average
In the weighted average of the 49 runoff polls that passed verification (167,083 respondents), Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes. In valid votes, the latest Quaest poll is 0.2 percentage point below the average for Flávio and 0.2 percentage point above the average for Lula. The difference may come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, and does not mean that one pollster is right or wrong.
How to read the Quaest poll
Quaest Pesquisa e Consultoria is a polling firm; its polls have different commissioning clients. The presidential runoff poll released on October 14 was commissioned by Editora Globo and Rede Globo, according to Estado de Minas. Only polls with a TSE registration and two sources are included; the basis is valid votes. This page gathers the information that was released and does not replace the official release from Quaest: check the technical sheet in the sources cited.
Frequently asked questions about the Quaest poll
What is the latest Quaest poll for president?
Released on Oct. 24, 2026 (registration BR-09158/2026 with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court): Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0% and Lula 49.0% of valid votes, with a margin of ±2.0 points.
When is the next Quaest poll coming out?
There is no confirmed date for the next Quaest poll registered with the TSE. When a registration with a date appears, it will be shown here.
How does the Quaest poll compare with the poll average?
In valid votes, the latest Quaest poll gives Flávio 51.0%, against 51.2% in the weighted average of 49 polls, and Lula 49.0%, against 48.8%. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates.