Datafolha presidential poll 2026: latest runoff poll
The most recent Datafolha runoff poll was released on Oct. 24: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0% and Lula 49.0% of valid votes, with 4,050 respondents and a margin of ±2.0 points (registration BR-09540/2026).
Latest Datafolha poll for president
Votos válidos, divulgada em Oct. 24, 2026, com campo de Oct. 23 a Oct. 24, 4,050 entrevistados e registro BR-09540/2026 no TSE. Fontes: Banda B, Gazeta do Povo. Divulgada em Oct. 24 (cerca de 18h40). Os totais não constam de modo consistente nas fontes e ficaram de fora.
All Datafolha runoff polls
From most recent to oldest, in valid votes; when the pollster released only the total, its figure comes first.
| Released | Fieldwork | Sample | Flávio | Lula | Registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 24 | Oct. 23 to Oct. 24 | 4,050 | 51.0% | 49.0% | BR-09540/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Folha de S.Paulo e Globo |
| Oct. 22 | Oct. 20 to Oct. 22 | 2,520 | 50.0% | 50.0% | BR-09709/2026 Confidence level: 95% Contratante: Folha de S.Paulo e Globo |
| Oct. 15 | Oct. 13 to Oct. 14 | 2,520 | 51.0% | 49.0% | BR-00466/2026 Confidence level: 95% Commissioned by: Folha de S.Paulo and Grupo Globo de Comunicação |
| Oct. 8 | Oct. 6 to Oct. 8 | 2,520 | 52.0% | 48.0% | BR-02949/2026 Confidence level: 95% Commissioned by: Folha de S.Paulo and Grupo Globo de Comunicação |
Datafolha and the poll average
In the weighted average of the 49 runoff polls that passed verification (167,083 respondents), Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes. In valid votes, the latest Datafolha poll is 0.2 percentage point below the average for Flávio and 0.2 percentage point above the average for Lula. The difference may come from method, sample and fieldwork dates, and does not mean that one pollster is right or wrong.
How to read the Datafolha poll
Datafolha is the polling institute of the Folha group. Only polls with a TSE registration and two sources are included; the basis is valid votes. This page gathers the information that was released and does not replace the official release from Datafolha: check the technical sheet in the sources cited.
Frequently asked questions about the Datafolha poll
What is the latest Datafolha poll for president?
Released on Oct. 24, 2026 (registration BR-09540/2026 with the TSE, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court): Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0% and Lula 49.0% of valid votes, with a margin of ±2.0 points.
When is the next Datafolha poll coming out?
There is no confirmed date for the next Datafolha poll registered with the TSE. When a registration with a date appears, it will be shown here.
How does the Datafolha poll compare with the poll average?
In valid votes, the latest Datafolha poll gives Flávio 51.0%, against 51.2% in the weighted average of 49 polls, and Lula 49.0%, against 48.8%. Differences between pollsters come from method, sample and fieldwork dates.